Forecasting as Part of a Change Initiative

by Patrick Farrell

Organizational change is about creating a new future for my organization. Sometimes that new future is easy to see and understand, usually because the change seems to be something we are familiar with, and have done before. Under those conditions, whoever is the primary initiator of change probably has a pretty clear idea of when and how the change will be accomplished and what the organization will look like when we are ‘finished’. It may also be the case that the process and outcome are so evident that most of the members of the organization can also visualize the outcome.

Transformational changes to an organization can be quite different, in that the changes envisioned are likely to substantially change the organization, and some of the direct or indirect effects of that change are not easy to anticipate. Even more challenging is when the change ‘target’ and maybe process are evolving as the work is underway. Overlay uncertainty (real goals) on uncertainty (how we’ll get there) and it seems we will have a real mess on our hands.

Forecasting Creates a Possible Future for Your Organization’s Transformation

One of the approaches that I have tried to use in a variety of ways to help (somewhat) with this tangle of tangles, is a version of forecasting. The idea is to posit a possible future that is not assured, but plausible, as a way to begin to visualize where the organization is now, relative to that plausible future, what needs to happen to get there, and what we might expect along the way.   In its simplest form, this is a proposal for the future. Sometimes this is put to work in a simulated backward-looking view as a ‘history of the future’. In this example, we might posit where we want/hope/expect our organization to be in the future (say in 5 years) and pretend we are historians looking back 5 years from now, writing the story of how we got there, pivotal moments, key insights, etc. From this effort we might glean valuable insights into what we think we need to do to arrive at the posited future.  While I like this approach, it relies on a plausible (singular) future that is widely accepted, on which to build the ‘history’.

In the land of uncertainly, that plausible future is only that—plausible—and a useful (though perhaps mind-spinning question) might be—what other plausible futures are there that we should consider? Now it looks like forecasting is only making my uncertainty about change even more of a mess.  But maybe not.

Consider forecasting with a scenario planning flavor. Suppose in our initial thinking about our organizational future, even with a set of changes in mind, we propose not one, but several plausible futures that could accrue as a result of where we are and what we are planning to do. Recognize that while we are busily doing this change work, the world outside our organization has not stopped, so our relationship to that world will continue to change as well. Can we spend a little time thinking through different scenarios that might have us arrive at somewhat different futures from a common starting point with similar change efforts? Some futures might seem most likely, some highly unlikely, but I have found great benefit from forcing the conversation around multiple future states.  If you like math, think of a very limited Monte Carlo simulation. If you don’t like math—don’t think of it.

How does Forecasting Help Organizational Change?

How might this help? Out of the universe of possible future states for our organization, we will have thought about not just one, but several possibilities (some of which we might really want to avoid). We can evaluate one as most probable, and talk very publicly about that as our best estimate forecast for the new future we hope our changes will bring. We can also acknowledge that our actions could result in other outcomes—some of which we might be just fine with, some of which we really want to avoid. Obviously the latter allows an open discussion of what we want to achieve and what we want to avoid, and acknowledges the unspoken and maybe unspecified uncertainty folks feel at the outset. The effort also gives us some pretty clear guidance of what we need to do, or not do, to try to avoid some of the outcome scenarios we saw and hated.

I am a big fan of forecasting—not with certainty but with plausibility or highest likelihood. I like the idea of exploring other possible futures or forecasts, not as equally likely, but as possible and instructive. In my experience, for a community embarking on a major change, whether everyone is involved or many are watching to see how this plays out, suggesting what the future might look like with appropriate recognition of alternatives, can be very helpful. It can encourage a group to move from immobilization by uncertainty to a greater comfort with how uncertainty may play out, and hopefully greater confidence in themselves and the organizations ability to see and act as elements of the future appear and conform, or not, to that forecast. And, of course, we very publicly revise the forecast as reality intrudes.

How Does Forecasting Help Change Leaders?

For change “leaders” at many levels of the organization, forecasting gives a chance to share a view of the future, acknowledge the uncertainly embedded in that view, yet be as clear as you can be about what the outcome will be for the organization. Many listeners to such a forecast expect leaders to be better informed and have a more comprehensive view than they do—and really want to hear what you expect and what worries you in that forecast. Looking at the future in an open way, not as a sales pitch for your ideas, will likely give a much more accurate look, and that honest look shared with the community is likely to help the community be better prepared to do the hard work of change.